The U.S. stock market, especially the technology sector, is currently particularly fragile. Why do I say that? The current interest rate in the United States is above 5%. At this rate, the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of stocks in the U.S. stock market should be below 20 to be reasonable. Otherwise, it would be better to deposit money in a bank. The higher the interest rate, the lower the value of stocks. The principle is: since I can earn so much money by depositing money in the bank, and it is risk-free, why should I enter the stock market?

The current average P/E ratio of U.S. technology stocks is 34 times! This is definitely not cheap. Even after a significant drop, Nvidia's P/E ratio is still over 60 times. Therefore, the delay in U.S. interest rate cuts has suppressed the valuation of technology stocks. Under this expectation, it is difficult for the NASDAQ index to perform well.

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This is the reason why I sold my NASDAQ index fund at the end of last year. The valuation of U.S. technology stocks is really too high! Today, I am not going to talk about technology stocks, but about the real estate industry. Many stock investors hold stocks or funds in the real estate industry. They are eager to know if the real estate industry is still viable? How long will it take for the real estate industry to recover?

The recovery of China's real estate industry depends on various factors, including the macroeconomic environment, policy regulation, market demand and supply conditions, and the transformation of industry development models, etc.

At present, China has begun to implement a series of policies to stabilize the market, such as reducing the cost of buying a house, lowering the threshold for buying a house, and relaxing purchase restrictions. The effectiveness of these policies will directly affect the speed of industry recovery. In addition, the recovery of the real estate market is closely related to the overall economic recovery. If the economy can grow stably, and residents' income increases, it will help to boost homebuyers' confidence and promote the activity of the real estate market. The recovery of market confidence also requires a certain period of time.

U.S. housing prices began to fall in 2007, with a drop of nearly 30%. It took five years for the real estate market to start recovering, and it took about ten years to return to the pre-crisis level. In recent decades, many countries around the world have encountered real estate crises, and the time to recover from the crisis varies, which usually depends on factors such as the severity of the bubble, economic structure, policy response, and the specific macroeconomic environment of the country.

After the real estate bubble burst in Japan in 1991, it took more than ten years for the Japanese real estate market to start recovering. During the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the real estate markets of Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Malaysia suffered heavy losses. Some countries began to recover within a few years, while others needed a longer time to adjust and recover.

Ireland and Spain suffered severe damage to the real estate industry during the 2008 financial crisis, and signs of recovery only began to emerge after 20210. Some studies point out that the real estate crisis and its impact last for a particularly long time, and the most affected time is usually not the year of the real estate crisis or the following year, but many impacts will not bottom out until the third year or even longer.

From this, it can be seen that the current low trend of China's real estate industry is very normal, and it requires a period of time for recovery. According to the historical experience of the international real estate industry, this bottoming process will take at least two years. Therefore, friends who have invested in the real estate sector and are currently stuck need to be prepared to hold for more than two years.The situation of the real estate industry "rushing to do big things quickly" in the next decade will never appear again. The development of the real estate industry in the future will be moderate, the debt ratio of real estate companies will be greatly reduced, and the overall business income of the industry will also be far lower than before, and the real estate industry officially enters the black iron era.

The real estate industry is a pillar industry of our country's economy, and it affects the development of many industries. Under the background of economic development and policy support, the real estate industry in our country will definitely recover slowly in the future, but we cannot predict the specific time in advance.