In fact, the financial war between China and the United States has been going on for six years.

Many people have heard of the financial war in recent years.

Especially when they occasionally hear the words "Federal Reserve rate cut," they realize that we are fighting a financial war without smoke.

In fact, as early as 2018, during the China-US trade war, the financial war had already begun.

But at that time, everyone thought it was a trade war, a technology war, and did not realize that behind it, it was still a financial war.

And around 2021, the financial war was fully launched because the dollar tide began to sweep the world.

So, many people think that the financial war has only lasted for three years.

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But whether it's three years or six years, this may just be a prelude.

The relationship between China and the United States is difficult to return to the era of joint progress in the past few decades. When the leader feels threatened by the second, it will inevitably take action.

Some things are the laws of human nature and are always inevitable.Many people do not understand the essence of financial warfare. In fact, the issue is not very complicated; it is about the flow of capital among various countries.

Thus, the so-called dollar tide we refer to is the United States leveraging its dominant position in the global monetary system to reap benefits from the world.

The reason why many believe that 2021 marks the beginning of financial warfare is because the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to zero at that time.

This undoubtedly pushed money outwards, as there was no interest in keeping it in American banks.

Starting in 2022, the interest rates were raised directly to over 5%, which was a call to the world to deposit money back into the United States, whether in banks or U.S. Treasury bonds, as long as money was provided.

The so-called "harvesting" refers to the global capital flow back to the United States.

If you do not want to be harvested and do not want capital to flow out, there is only one way: to raise interest rates.

Therefore, to avoid a massive capital flight, Europe chose to raise interest rates in sync.

And this, precisely, is our Achilles' heel.

When stimulating economic recovery, it is not advisable to raise interest rates rashly.Raising interest rates can reduce capital outflows, but it will also lead to a continuous increase in the burden on enterprises and further reduce people's willingness to consume. In the past two years, in order to resist capital outflows, interest rates have been maintained at a relatively low level. However, even with foreign exchange controls, capital outflows are still inevitable, and the act of "moistening money" is always ongoing. Otherwise, why haven't the year-on-year increase in export trade data brought about a significant increase in foreign exchange reserves?

Three trillion US dollars is our confidence and the ballast stone to resist exchange rate fluctuations. Foreign exchange control is our trump card, but it is ultimately still affected by the dollar tide, which is unavoidable. This has also led to the fact that although we are on the path of interest rate cuts, we dare not truly flood the market with liquidity. This is because the liquidity we hope to release can effectively stimulate the economy and boost domestic demand, rather than flowing out.

Regarding the financial war, the internet has vividly summarized it as the "hypertension battle against hypoglycemia." In fact, it refers to the confrontation between high interest rates and low interest rates.We must bear the burden of substantial trade deficits, the risk of capital outflows, lending at low interest rates, and depositing money in places with high interest rates.

What they have to bear is a large amount of debt, and the long-term maintenance of high interest rates on U.S. debt, which undoubtedly increases costs.

In this financial war, there are no winners.

Some say that the United States can no longer bear to cut interest rates, and we have won.

Others say that a large number of wealthy people have fled abroad, and they have won.

In any war, there is no absolute victory, both sides are destined to suffer losses.

Is there a winner in the Russia-Ukraine war?

Is there a winner in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

Many times, we cannot naively let both sides shake hands and make peace, but we must also understand that even if there is no mutual destruction, there are still losses on both sides.

If we look from the perspective of the United States, the side that initiated the war, not winning is actually losing.For the party that is passively engaged in the battle, as long as they haven't been knocked down and the opponent has extended a hand for reconciliation, it's considered a victory.

The hegemony of the US dollar, after this round of ebb and flow, even if its position remains, its true face has been exposed to the whole world.

Although foreign exchange reserves are as solid as a fortress, the exchange rate of the renminbi has soared from a low of 6.4 to 7.3, and the fluctuation in the exchange rate is quite obvious, but the overall range is still within a controllable scope.

It is important to remember that during the Asian financial crisis, the devaluation of the currencies of Asia-Pacific countries exceeded 50%.

At that time, it was also due to our firm resistance that the Wall Street conspiracy to short Hong Kong failed.

Our country's main assets are the real estate market and the stock market. If we calculate from the 2021 benchmark, the decline in both is significant.

The stock market reached a high of 3,700 points in 2021, and now it is at 2,800 points, with a drop of nearly 30%.

Although the crisis in the real estate market has been controlled, the impact on transaction volume and prices is also very large, and the decline in some areas has exceeded 30%.

The shrinkage of assets caused by the financial war is inevitable.

Many people mistakenly believe that the shrinkage of assets is due to the poor economic environment in the past two years, but in essence, it is caused by the capital withdrawal.Those who hold the funds have stopped their incessant purchasing spree and have chosen to wait and see.

This is equivalent to indirectly shorting assets, leading to significant fluctuations in asset prices.

The bubble in the stock market is not mainly in the valuation, but in the need for improvement in the system. The bubble in the real estate market, taking advantage of this round of financial warfare, is beginning to return to a reasonable level, which may not be a bad thing.

However, whether the real estate market in first-tier cities can rebound determines whether the soft landing of real estate can be smoothly achieved.

After all, we cannot afford the damage brought by a hard landing.

There is also a key issue here, that is, whether the funds withdrawn from real estate can effectively and smoothly enter the physical manufacturing industry to drive the economy, stimulate domestic demand, and boost consumption.

At least for now, these funds are still lying flat in the bank, waiting and observing.

This also means that once the United States begins to enter the interest rate reduction channel, we will further reduce interest rates to release liquidity and drive this part of the money out of the bank.

Our country's protection of our financial assets is actually quite in place.

Our banks have never truly gone bankrupt, and although our assets also fluctuate, they have never truly plummeted.Especially in terms of exchange rates, we have never really been defeated.

If you really understand, those countries swept by financial wars, with significant devaluation of their currencies, that is truly tragic.

In the past two years, although the impact is not small, many people have faced unemployment, debt, and great pressure, but at least in terms of food, clothing, housing, and transportation, it is not so bad.

Perhaps it is because we have had a good life for a long time, and occasionally there is a little regression, which is unbearable.

But the economy has cycles, we must allow some fluctuations in specific environments, and face some hardships and setbacks.

I wanted to say that the financial war will eventually end.

But the reality is that the financial war will exist for a long time, just like the cycle of the stock market, there will be continuous divergence, to unity, and then to divergence, over and over again.