It was probably in 2019 when I wrote an article about BYD's fundamentals. In the article, I discussed BYD's advantages in the field of new energy vehicles, compared various electric vehicle models of BYD with those of other manufacturers in terms of functionality and price, and concluded that BYD was the most outstanding company among domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers at that time.

At that time, BYD's stock price was around 50 yuan. In fact, BYD's leading advantage was not obvious at this time. While BYD was producing electric vehicles, it was also vigorously producing traditional fuel vehicles. To some extent, traditional fuel vehicles were still the main source of BYD's profits at that time.

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At that time, I tried sitting in BYD's new car at the car 4S store, and I felt that the space was spacious, but the interior was a bit too simple. The price of BYD's new car at that time was very cheap, and it was the cheapest among the similar models I saw. I almost bought BYD at that time.

However, the most popular car at that time was the Great Wall Haval series. In the end, under my wife's request, I bought Haval. During this period, I felt that BYD's operation was somewhat difficult. In the competition with major manufacturers such as SAIC, Changan, and Great Wall, I felt that it was very hard for BYD.

Soon after, BYD quietly launched the Blade Battery and launched a fierce publicity campaign. In my impression, this was a rare and strong marketing activity for BYD. I believe that the Blade Battery opened up a situation for BYD's operation, and since then, BYD's operation has started to improve.

It was a major decision by BYD's boss, Wang Chuanfu, that made BYD the current leader in domestic new energy vehicles - a few years ago, BYD suddenly announced a full-scale entry into electric vehicles. BYD was the first domestic company to announce the cessation of fuel vehicle production and a full-scale entry into electric vehicles. This decision was somewhat risky under the market conditions at that time. But it was this decision that made BYD fully enter the electric vehicle market and completely win at the starting line in the competition of electric vehicles.

Other car manufacturers were obviously a step behind, especially SAIC Group, which was estimated to be the most behind in the new energy vehicle action. The electric mini-cars it produced, with a profit as thin as a blade, were mainly to earn points. If other manufacturers were the first to fully enter the electric vehicle market, it would be hard to say whether BYD could still have the current achievements.

Since then, BYD has become the overlord of domestic new energy vehicles and achieved the first place in global new energy vehicle sales last year.

From BYD's path to success, we can see that there are inevitable factors and reasons for luck. The inevitable factor lies in BYD's focus on R&D investment for many years, investing a lot of manpower, material resources, and financial resources in electric vehicles, which is a serious company. On this point, Munger and Buffett were not wrong. Wang Chuanfu is an idealistic entrepreneur and a doer.The Factor of Luck: BYD's blade battery marketing had some elements of luck involved. To be fair, the blade battery is not a new major technological breakthrough, but BYD did a great job with this marketing campaign. Through this technology, BYD managed to break through in the marketing landscape at that time. If BYD's blade battery marketing had failed at that time, it would be hard to say whether BYD could become the global leader in electric vehicles today, and it might even be hard to say if BYD would still exist.

Additionally, the decision BYD made a few years ago to "abandon fuel vehicles and focus solely on electric vehicles" also carried certain decision-making risks. If this step had been taken incorrectly, BYD would have found it very difficult to maintain a foothold in future competition. Now, it seems that BYD has made the right move, but who could have imagined the risks BYD took at that time?

From this, we can see that the success of any individual or company has a certain element of luck or randomness. "Hard work" does not represent everything. Even if an individual or company is excellent, they still need to make blind choices in certain periods, and once they make the wrong choice, they may never recover.

Therefore, I personally do not believe that there is a capability or technology that can 100% select outstanding companies or super bull stocks. So, I will never believe in what Munger and Buffett said, "One's life only needs to hold one or two great companies." I believe that no one knows a great company is destined to be a great company before it becomes a great company, and it does not know it itself.

Life and investment are a bet. We do not know the future; what we know is just a probability. Therefore, no matter how excellent a company is, I will not allocate a particularly heavy position to it. Investment portfolio and asset allocation are the most important part of investment that I believe in.