Before answering this question, I must first mention a problem - the rules of the game.
When I was a child, my toys were only two glass balls. I played marbles with the children of my neighbors, and as a result, I quickly lost all my balls. This made the children of my neighbors very disappointed, and after playing, he returned the glass balls to me and invited me to play again the next day.
The next day, I lost the marble game again. This time, the child from the neighbor's house told me: "From now on, before we play each time, I will lend you 10 balls. Then we will play again."
On the third day, I lost the 10 balls he lent me again. He decided to lend me 20 balls this time. From then on, I could play with balls at his house at will, without worrying about winning or losing, and I could also play cards, chess, kite, and so on at his house, all provided by him for free.
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What I want to say is that our life and the whole world are actually such a game. We make continuous progress in the game, and we go from single win to multiple wins in the game. This is an inevitable law of world development, otherwise, the world's game will not be able to continue.
This is also the reason why I am very optimistic about the future of the world economy, our country's economy, and the trend of A-shares. The changes in the A-share market in the past 30 years have also confirmed my point of view. The A-share market more than 20 years ago was fond of speculation of junk stocks, market manipulators, and hot money, and short-term speculation was prevalent.
Now, the A-share market has gradually shifted to performance as the king. The stock prices of excellent companies continue to rise, setting historical highs. The stock prices of poor companies continue to decline towards the edge of delisting. This is the change of the game rules, from the previous market where a few people benefited, slowly moving towards the market where most people benefit.
The reason why the U.S. stock market has been able to continue to set new highs in recent years is that the current way of playing in the U.S. stock market is increasingly showing a "win-win" nature. Many institutional funds have joined forces in the excellent large companies in the U.S. market, and these excellent large companies have made large-scale dividends and buybacks, leading to the continuous rise of stock prices.
Under such a game, the vast majority of institutions and excellent listed companies themselves have achieved the preservation and appreciation of assets, and everyone is playing more happily. Passive index funds have made money because the index is continuously rising, institutions investing in excellent companies have made money, retail investors who buy funds have made money, and excellent listed companies themselves have also continuously appreciated their assets.In this game, only junk companies and some small companies with insufficient strength lose money. The market speculation on small and poor companies can only lead to a small number of people making money, and the money earned is temporary. The market's main avenue and the correct way to play the game for a long time is to enable most people to earn long-term money.
Therefore, the A-share market will inevitably be dominated by large companies with excellent performance in the future. Only the continuous rise of the stocks of these excellent large companies can lead to a long-term bull market in the A-share market. Note that I am not saying that the next round of the A-share market will immediately become the world of large-cap stocks, and small-cap stocks will be abandoned immediately.
What I mean is that in the next ten, twenty, or thirty years, the phenomenon of excellent large company stocks being favored by the market will become more and more severe, and the signs of small company stocks being marginalized by the market will become more and more obvious. This is a long-term gradual process. Because this trend is most in line with the long-term interests of most people in the market, rather than the short-term interests of a few people, it is the best game rule for the future market.
From the perspective of conforming to long-term interests, stocks with excellent performance, high dividends, high dividends, and high buybacks will inevitably become market hotspots in the future. From the perspective of conforming to the interests of most market participants, industry-leading companies and large-cap companies are more likely to become market hotspots.
Therefore, from a long-term perspective, the A-share market will inevitably be dominated by industry-leading companies with high dividends and high buybacks. They stabilize the stock price by paying a large amount of dividends, attracting a large number of institutional investors and retail investors to buy together, and they increase the company's performance by continuously buying back, leading to an upward trend in the company's performance and stock price. The company's management, who hold shares, have gained more benefits from the rise in stock prices. This game play has allowed many participants in the market to receive rewards and will inevitably last.
The long-term trend of large-cap stock index funds such as the Shanghai and Shenzhen 50, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and Zhongzheng 100 is worth looking forward to. Especially the leading companies in industries such as robots, new energy, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, consumption, and medical care, which are in line with the national industrial policy, are more worthy of our attention as investors.
I reiterate here that the A-share market in the future is not that investing in small-cap stocks does not make money, but the difficulty of making money from investing in small-cap stocks is relatively large. The difficulty of making money from investing in excellent large companies is relatively small. From the perspective of the success rate of making money, industry-leading companies will inevitably be the best choice for A-share investment in the future.
In summary, the stocks of large companies with good performance, high dividends, high buybacks, and in line with the development prospects of the times will be the easiest direction to make money in the A-share market in the future.
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